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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 76% on Polymarket, and the best No is 52% on PredictIt. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 24.1% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 5.8K contracts.
Best Yes
76%
Polymarket
Best No
52%
PredictIt
Cross-Source Spread
28¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76% ★ | 24% | — | 5.8K | 5.8K | 4.4K | High |
| PredictIt | 48% | 52% ★ | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Flávio Bolsonaro
Buy YES on
PredictIt
48¢
Buy NO on
Polymarket
24¢
Total Cost
72¢
Gross Profit
28¢
Est. Fees
10.68¢
Net Profit
17.32¢
Return
24.1%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Polymarket — Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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