//
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Manifold. The best Yes price right now is 76% on Manifold, and the best No is 65% on Polymarket. Prices currently differ by 40¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 60.9K contracts.
Best Yes
76%
Manifold
Best No
65%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
40¢
Source Count
2
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Sign in to submit your prediction and track your accuracy over time.
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36% | 65% ★ | — | 4.4K | 4.4K | 2.4K | High |
| Manifold | 76% ★ | 24% | — | M$ 56.6K | M$ 47.0K | 5.2K | High |
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Manifold | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Polymarket — Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.