//
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Manifold. The best Yes price right now is 12% on Manifold, and the best No is 96% on Polymarket. Prices currently differ by 8¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 104.6K contracts.
Best Yes
12%
Manifold
Best No
96%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
8¢
Source Count
2
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Sign in to submit your prediction and track your accuracy over time.
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4% | 96% ★ | — | 104.6K | 41.1M | 504.9K | High |
| Manifold | 12% ★ | 88% | — | — | M$ 183.6K | 5.4K | Low |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Manifold | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Polymarket — Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.