//
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 87% on PredictIt, and the best No is 59% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 55.4% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 46.8K contracts.
Best Yes
87%
PredictIt
Best No
59%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
45¢
Source Count
2
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Sign in to submit your prediction and track your accuracy over time.
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42% | 59% ★ | +47d | 46.8K | 385.4K | 94.2K | High |
| PredictIt | 87% ★ | 13% | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Will Pete Hegseth leave office in 2027? — Will Pete Hegseth leave office in 2027?
Buy YES on
Polymarket
42¢
Buy NO on
PredictIt
13¢
Total Cost
55¢
Gross Profit
45¢
Est. Fees
14.54¢
Net Profit
30.46¢
Return
55.4%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Polymarket — Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.