Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 45% on PredictIt, and the best No is 70% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 5.8% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 256.9K contracts.
Best Yes
45%
PredictIt
Best No
70%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
15¢
Source Count
2
Price History (Cross-Source)
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Your Prediction
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Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30% | 70% ★ | -147d | 256.9K | 5.2M | 134.2K | High |
| PredictIt | 45% ★ | 55% | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Flávio Bolsonaro
Arbitrage Calculator
Free previewBuy YES on
Polymarket
30¢
Buy NO on
PredictIt
55¢
Total Cost
85¢
Gross Profit
15¢
Est. Fees
10.1¢
Net Profit
4.9¢
Return
5.8%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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