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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Who will win the next presidential election? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 3% on Kalshi, and the best No is 99% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 1.8% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 7.2K contracts.
Best Yes
3%
Kalshi
Best No
99%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
2¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 3% ★ | 97% | — | 2.9K | 2.0M | 1.6M | High |
| Polymarket | 1% | 99% ★ | — | 4.3K | 19.2M | 351.7K | High |
Who will win the next presidential election?
:: Democratic
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Buy YES on
Polymarket
1¢
Buy NO on
Kalshi
97¢
Total Cost
98¢
Gross Profit
2¢
Est. Fees
0.23¢
Net Profit
1.77¢
Return
1.8%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Who will win the next presidential election?
If Andy Beshear is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket — Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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