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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Manifold. The best Yes price right now is 12% on Manifold, and the best No is 93% on Polymarket. Prices currently differ by 4¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 21.7K contracts.
Best Yes
12%
Manifold
Best No
93%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
4¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8% | 93% ★ | — | 21.7K | 497.6K | 128.5K | High |
| Manifold | 12% ★ | 88% | — | — | M$ 184.0K | 5.4K | Low |
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Manifold | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Polymarket — Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.