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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Iran nuclear test before 2027? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Metaculus. The best Yes price right now is 4% on Polymarket, and the best No is 96% on Polymarket. Prices are currently aligned across all listed exchanges. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 16.5K contracts.
Best Yes
4%
Polymarket
Best No
96%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
—
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4% ★ | 96% ★ | — | 16.5K | 301.4K | 49.1K | High |
| Metaculus | 0% | 0% | — | — | — | 145 | Low |
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Metaculus | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Polymarket — Iran nuclear test before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.