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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Fight ends by Submission? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 9% on Kalshi, and the best No is 99% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 6.8% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 11.0K contracts.
Best Yes
9%
Kalshi
Best No
99%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
7¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCombo | 9% ★ | 91% | -3 | 601 | 748 | 723 | High |
| PolymarketCombo | 2% | 99% ★ | -487d | 10.4K | 10.4K | 309 | High |
Fight ends by Submission?
Will the fight be won by submission?
Select markets above to estimate combo odds. Place your combo on Kalshi
Buy YES on
Polymarket
2¢
Buy NO on
Kalshi
91¢
Total Cost
93¢
Gross Profit
7¢
Est. Fees
0.67¢
Net Profit
6.33¢
Return
6.8%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Fight ends by Submission?
If either competitor wins by Submission during the Loneer Kavanagh vs. Ramazonbek Temirov 333 fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Polymarket — Will the fight be won by submission?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Nikita Krylov and Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.