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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 23% on PredictIt, and the best No is 87% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 1.6% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 96.0K contracts.
Best Yes
23%
PredictIt
Best No
87%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
9¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14% | 87% ★ | -17d | 96.0K | 4.0M | 316.5K | High |
| PredictIt | 23% ★ | 77% | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? — Republican
Buy YES on
Polymarket
14¢
Buy NO on
PredictIt
77¢
Total Cost
91¢
Gross Profit
9¢
Est. Fees
7.58¢
Net Profit
1.42¢
Return
1.6%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Polymarket — Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
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