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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 95% on Polymarket, and the best No is 7% on Kalshi. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 1.4% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 19.9K contracts.
Best Yes
95%
Polymarket
Best No
7%
Kalshi
Cross-Source Spread
2¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 93% | 7% ★ | +30 | 965 | 183.6K | 42.8K | Medium |
| Polymarket | 95% ★ | 5% | -27d | 18.9K | 357.5K | 40.4K | High |
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Buy YES on
Kalshi
93¢
Buy NO on
Polymarket
5¢
Total Cost
98¢
Gross Profit
2¢
Est. Fees
0.59¢
Net Profit
1.41¢
Return
1.4%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket — Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.