Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 56% on Polymarket, and the best No is 46% on PredictIt. Prices currently differ by 2¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 176.9K contracts.
Best Yes
56%
Polymarket
Best No
46%
PredictIt
Cross-Source Spread
2¢
Source Count
2
Price History (Cross-Source)
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and track your accuracy over time.
Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% ★ | 44% | +67d | 176.9K | 6.9M | 495.9K | High |
| PredictIt | 54% | 46% ★ | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Luiz Inácio Lula
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Related in Elections
Who will win the next presidential election?
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Benjamin Netanyahu