Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Comparing 1 sources · Updated every 60s
Best Yes
77%
Polymarket
Best No
24%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
—
Source Count
1
Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 77% | 24% | -57d | 688.7K | 1.0M | 406.5K | High |
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.