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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 4% on Kalshi, and the best No is 98% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 0.7% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 6.1K contracts.
Best Yes
4%
Kalshi
Best No
98%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
1¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 4% ★ | 96% | -2 | 937 | 111.3K | 43.1K | High |
| Polymarket | 3% | 98% ★ | +27d | 5.1K | 19.5K | 6.7K | High |
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
Buy YES on
Polymarket
3¢
Buy NO on
Kalshi
96¢
Total Cost
99¢
Gross Profit
1¢
Est. Fees
0.34¢
Net Profit
0.66¢
Return
0.7%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?
If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
Polymarket — Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.