EconomicsKalshiMetaculus6¢ spread
Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Best Yes
90%
Kalshi
Best No
16%
Metaculus
Cross-Source Spread
6¢
Source Count
2
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Price History (Cross-Source)
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90% ★ | 10% | +3 | 295 | 86.3K | 35.6K | High |
| Metaculus | 84% | 16% ★ | — | — | — | 357 | Low |
KalshiTradingBest Yes
Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?
Elon Musk
90%
Elon Musk
10%
Yes Bid/Ask: 88¢ / 90¢
No Bid/Ask: 10¢ / 12¢
24h: 295Vol: 86.3KOI: 35.6KCloses: Jan 1, 2030
MetaculusForecastBest No
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
Yes
84%
No
16%
OI: 357Forecasters: 357Forecasts: 1,199
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Metaculus | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Resolution Rules
Kalshi — Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?
If Elon Musk is the world's first trillionare before Jan 1, 2030 then the market resolves to Yes.