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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and PredictIt. The best Yes price right now is 50% on PredictIt, and the best No is 98% on Polymarket. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 73% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 5.1K contracts.
Best Yes
50%
PredictIt
Best No
98%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
48¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | 98% ★ | — | 5.1K | 8.4K | 11.1K | High |
| PredictIt | 50% ★ | 50% | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Will an individual win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize? — Will an individual win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Buy YES on
Polymarket
2¢
Buy NO on
PredictIt
50¢
Total Cost
52¢
Gross Profit
48¢
Est. Fees
10.04¢
Net Profit
37.96¢
Return
73%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Polymarket — Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.