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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Manifold. The best Yes price right now is 76% on Manifold, and the best No is 95% on Polymarket. Prices currently differ by 70¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 63.2K contracts.
Best Yes
76%
Manifold
Best No
95%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
70¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6% | 95% ★ | — | 7.0K | 215.3K | 81.5K | High |
| Manifold | 76% ★ | 24% | — | M$ 56.2K | M$ 46.4K | 5.2K | High |
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Manifold | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Polymarket — Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.