Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Comparing 1 sources · Updated every 60s
Best Yes
11%
Polymarket
Best No
89%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
—
Source Count
1
Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11% | 89% | — | 345.7K | 12.0M | 492.8K | High |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.