Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Polymarket and Manifold. The best Yes price right now is 14% on Polymarket, and the best No is 87% on Polymarket. Prices currently differ by 1¢ across exchanges, the largest spread between any two listed sources. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 1.2M contracts.
Best Yes
14%
Polymarket
Best No
87%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
1¢
Source Count
2
Price History (Cross-Source)
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
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Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14% ★ | 87% ★ | -67d | 1.1M | 26.9M | 657.3K | High |
| Manifold | 13% | 87% ★ | — | M$ 19.4K | M$ 222.4K | 1.0K | Low |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| Manifold | N/A | Forecasting platform (no real-money trading) | ||
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.