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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 99% on Polymarket, and the best No is 87% on Kalshi. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 570.6% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 683.8K contracts.
Best Yes
99%
Polymarket
Best No
87%
Kalshi
Cross-Source Spread
86¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCombo | 13% | 87% ★ | +13 | 673.2K | 675.4K | 627.3K | High |
| PolymarketCombo | 99% ★ | 1% | — | 10.6K | 10.6K | 5 | Medium |
Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5
Select markets above to estimate combo odds. Place your combo on Kalshi
Buy YES on
Kalshi
13¢
Buy NO on
Polymarket
1¢
Total Cost
14¢
Gross Profit
86¢
Est. Fees
6.11¢
Net Profit
79.89¢
Return
570.6%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?
If Shohei Ohtani records 1+ home runs in Milwaukee vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Shohei Ohtani is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Shohei Ohtani starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Shohei Ohtani is not in the starting lineup but later enters the game, the market will resolve to the fair market price, pinch hit at bats will not count towards the market. If Shohei Ohtani is in the starting lineup and records at least one plate appearance the market will settle based on home runs recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Polymarket — Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5
In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for October 15 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Shohei Ohtani records more than 0.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Shohei Ohtani records less than 0.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.