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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Patrick Mahomes: 1st Touchdown is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 15% on Polymarket, and the best No is 94% on Kalshi. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 0.8% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 383.4K contracts.
Best Yes
15%
Polymarket
Best No
94%
Kalshi
Cross-Source Spread
9¢
Source Count
2
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCombo | 6% | 94% ★ | +1 | 374.8K | 430.3K | 422.6K | High |
| PolymarketCombo | 15% ★ | 85% | — | 8.6K | 8.6K | 51.0K | Medium |
Patrick Mahomes: 1st Touchdown
Patrick Mahomes: Anytime Touchdown
Select markets above to estimate combo odds. Place your combo on Kalshi
Buy YES on
Kalshi
6¢
Buy NO on
Polymarket
85¢
Total Cost
91¢
Gross Profit
9¢
Est. Fees
8.28¢
Net Profit
0.72¢
Return
0.8%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Patrick Mahomes: 1st Touchdown
If Patrick Mahomes scores the first touchdown in Indianapolis vs Kansas City Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to Patrick Mahomes in the Indianapolis vs Kansas City professional football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. If Patrick Mahomes is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Patrick Mahomes takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes and all other player markets resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Polymarket — Patrick Mahomes: Anytime Touchdown
In the upcoming NFL football game between Colts and Chiefs, scheduled for September 20 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Patrick Mahomes scores 1 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.