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Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Fight ends by Submission? is currently being traded on 2 exchanges: Kalshi and Polymarket. The best Yes price right now is 32% on Polymarket, and the best No is 86% on Kalshi. A cross-exchange arbitrage opportunity is currently live with an estimated 11.6% net return. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is 5.9K contracts.
Best Yes
32%
Polymarket
Best No
86%
Kalshi
Cross-Source Spread
18¢
Source Count
2
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| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCombo | 14% | 86% ★ | +14 | 134 | 134 | 134 | Medium |
| PolymarketCombo | 32% ★ | 69% | -187d | 5.7K | 45.9K | 17.0K | High |
Fight ends by Submission?
Will the fight be won by submission?
Select markets above to estimate combo odds. Place your combo on Kalshi
Buy YES on
Kalshi
14¢
Buy NO on
Polymarket
69¢
Total Cost
83¢
Gross Profit
17¢
Est. Fees
7.4¢
Net Profit
9.6¢
Return
11.6%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | None | 7% | None | Trading exchange |
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
Kalshi — Fight ends by Submission?
If either competitor wins by Submission during the Natalia Silva vs. Cong Wang 332 fight originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Polymarket — Will the fight be won by submission?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Ilias Bulaid and Erick Visconde at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8, scheduled for September 29, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.