Next Fed Chair Nomination
Comparing 2 sources · Updated every 60s
Best Yes
93%
PredictIt
Best No
97%
Polymarket
Cross-Source Spread
90¢
Source Count
2
Price History (Cross-Source)
Historical comparison data will appear after the snapshot ingestion job runs a few times.
Price Comparison
| Source | Yes | No | Change | Volume 24h | Total Volume | Open Interest | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3% | 97% ★ | — | 1.3M | 88.4M | 2.3M | High |
| PredictIt | 93% ★ | 7% | — | — | — | — | Low |
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Whom will the President nominate next as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? — Kevin Warsh
Arbitrage Calculator
Buy YES on
Polymarket
3¢
Buy NO on
PredictIt
7¢
Total Cost
10¢
Gross Profit
90¢
Est. Fees
14.36¢
Net Profit
75.64¢
Return
756.4%
Disclaimer: Arbitrage calculations are estimates based on publicly listed fees. Actual fees, slippage, withdrawal timing, and market movement may affect realized returns. This is not financial advice. Always verify current fee schedules on each exchange before trading.
Fee Reference
| Exchange | Trading Fee | Profit Fee | Withdrawal Fee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2% | None | None | Trading exchange |
| PredictIt | None | 10% | 5% | Trading exchange |
Resolution Rules
Polymarket — Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.